Nvidia’s Q2 Earnings Outlook Hinges on China Market Amid AI Chip Export Constraints

Nvidia's second-quarter earnings report looms as a critical test for the chipmaker's resilience after a one-month slump. Shares hover near flat at press time but maintain a 29% year-to-date gain, reflecting Wall Street's tempered optimism. The TRUMP administration's new 15% revenue-sharing mandate for AI chip exports to China has injected volatility into tech stocks, particularly across the artificial intelligence sector.

Analysts anticipate robust Q2 results fueled by Blackwell GPU demand, yet guidance remains the focal point. KeyBanc's John Vinh posits China could deliver a $2-3 billion revenue swing if included in forward projections. The firm upgraded its price target to $215, citing Nvidia's pole position in the AI infrastructure race. Export license uncertainties continue to cast shadows over Q3 forecasts, with China's inclusion serving as the potential earnings catalyst.